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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
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For James Curwen, chief executive at Yggdrasil, the tension between the industry’s need for fresh content and the commercial realities of producing it goes to the heart of the challenge.
“The industry has a content problem,” he says. “There are thousands of games being released and too many of them are variations of something that already exists.
“Part of the reason is economics. When games take months and significant money to develop, people naturally become risk-averse. Building on something that already works becomes the safer option.”
About 40 Vampire Beast
Seoheng said the network’s launch comes as Africa’s online gambling market continues to expand, marking stronger player protection and responsible gambling measures increasingly important.
One of the founding members of the ARGN is GamblePause Initiative Africa, founded by Ladipo Abiose Akolade.
Akolade said the ARGN was established to address the fragmented nature of responsible gambling efforts across Africa and create a platform for greater collaboration between organisations working in the space.